CasketCracking101

Hey all, FenrirFlechette here. By now, everyone is probably used to seeing those pesky little brown boxes dotting the landscape. Unfortunately, it seems that all too often, I pass unopened ones. Treasure Caskets that have fallen by the wayside, abandoned by the very adventurer that brought them into their brief 3-minute existence. In an effort to increase awareness, assist the clueless, and convince the skeptical, I offer my experience and insight on these oft overlooked reliquaries of goodness.

Why Bother?
"Treasure Caskets?" you scoff. "That's math and stuff, Double-F. And I hear they're just full of junk!"

Not so! Sure, no one wants to spend 2 minutes popping one of these little marvels open only to be rewarded with an Insect Wing, or (Altana forbid) a Flint Stone. But just take a gander at some of the higher area zones. We're talking Mythril Ingots, gemstones, high-end logs! Its good stuff folks! More importantly, its AH-able stuff!

Also, some of the gear is actually not only just "serviceable", its just plain good! Let me point out a few of the highlights:

Casaba Melon Tank - 50 Melon Juices. Portable. FREE. Even without the +3 hMP from fire weather, this one's worth keeping in any mage's Mog Satchel.

Phlegethon's Trousers - +1 STR. Not to mention the fact that its acquired in the Dunes, which is the perfect place to get the most out of the +5 STR bonus in fire weather. Great piece for your startup melee classes.

Bronze Bandolier - This should be a no-brainer. With Bronze Bullet prices anywhere from 2-3k per stack depending on server, you're minting your own money with this one.

Farming Boyadha Moss or Beastman Blood in Pashhow? Why not trot home with 4 or 5 Elm Logs in that Gobbiebag?

Committing mass genocide on Ivory Lizards for that ever-elusive Elshimo Marble? Grab that Tele-Yhoat scroll and then go AH the 2 stacks of Iron Ingots you snagged as well.

Cracking Treasure Caskets is at the VERY least a few extra moments between kills. At its best, its a boon to farming and camping alike, an alternative to some of the gear that may be out of your price range, and a serious boost to your cash flow.

The Process
Simple. Its basically just a matter of luck, numeric elimination based on a specific number of provided values, and some probability factoring thrown in for good measure.

Say What?
Okay, okay. Its a LOT simpler than it sounds. What throws a lot of people is the fact that the clues you receive (in the form of "hunches") are not so much a guide to what the number IS, its a framework to eliminate what it ISN'T. Its a bit like Bingo meets Battleship. The sooner you can figure out where the other guy's ships AREN'T, the sooner you can sink the weasel that took out your Cruiser.

The simplest way to demonstrate this is with a basic grid:


 * 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |


 * 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |


 * 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 |


 * 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 |


 * 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 |


 * 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 |


 * 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 |


 * 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 |


 * 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 |

One upside is we're ahead of the game, because it can never be lower than 10. That saves us the entire 00-09 row.

Casket Cracking With the Grid
''Note: I highly advise making your own grid in pen, and using a pencil to eliminate numbers as you go until you get the hang of it. If you want to get all sophisticated, Sharpie it on a dry-erase board and use the erasable marker to check the numbers off. A few swipes with a tissue and you're ready for your next Casket.''

So here we have our board, with no clues. Every number COULD be the right one.


 * 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |


 * 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |


 * 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 |


 * 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 |


 * 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 |


 * 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 |


 * 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 |


 * 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 |


 * 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 |

Great. 90 possible combinations. Let's check our Casket and get cracking!

Chance 1 of 5: "You have a hunch that the first digit is even."

Okay, now since the first number is even, we can eliminate all the ones that start with odd numbers:

| 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |


 * 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |

| 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 |


 * 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 |

| 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 |


 * 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 |

| 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 |


 * 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 |

| 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 |

So we're left with only 40 possible options. Not a bad start! Let's check again:

Chance 2 of 5: "You have a hunch that the second digit is 4, 5 or 6."

Again, applying our latest information to the grid, we're left with this:

| 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |


 * 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |


 * 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 |


 * 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 |


 * 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 |


 * 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 |


 * 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 |


 * 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 |


 * 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 |

Down to 12! Now remember, we started 5 chances, but we need 1 chance to actually input the code. Doesn't do us any good to know what the number is if the box disappears. Let's check again and see if we can narrow it down even more.

Chance 3 of 5: "You have a hunch that the number is greater than 44, but less than 68."

Let's see what that does for us:

| 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |


 * 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |


 * 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 |


 * 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 |


 * 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 |


 * 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 |


 * 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 |


 * 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 |


 * 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 |

Now we've taken the 20's and the 80's out of the running, as well as 44. Remember: When it says the combination is greater or less than a number (like 44 in this case), it can never BE that number. We're narrowing it down, but we only have one clue left! Let's hope for a good one!

Chance 4 of 5: "You have a hunch that one of the two digits is 5."

So now we know that our number HAS to have a 5 in it, and we're left with this:

| 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |


 * 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |


 * 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 |


 * 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 |


 * 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 |


 * 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 |


 * 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 |


 * 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 |


 * 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 |

A decent set of clues and we're down to a 50/50 shot from a 1-in-90. I like our odds a lot better now, don't you? Well, we're all out of chances, and its time to go for broke and pick one. Since I have a DNC at 65, I'm gonna go with that.

"Please input the combination: 65"

Here we go...

"You failed to-"

Ah, ah! Its MY guide and I say happy ending!

"You succeeded in opening the casket!"

Better!

"You find a Peacock Charm inside the treasure casket!"

Okay, now you're just kissing up. On a more serious note though, sometimes a 50/50 shot is the closest you can get. To paraphrase the great Yogi Berra: "Ninety percent of Casket cracking is half luck." Not too bad for our first one, but let's kick it up a notch. We're fortunate enough to have at our disposal another tool in our quest for righteous stuff, a tool I like to call...

The Over-Under
This one's a little different. Put simply, if you just input a 2-digit number and its not the correct number, it tells you whether or not the actual combination is higher or lower than that number. Back to the grid:


 * 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |


 * 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |


 * 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 |


 * 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 |


 * 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 |


 * 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 |


 * 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 |


 * 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 |


 * 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 |

A nice clean slate. But instead of asking for a clue, I'm going to just input a number. 55 is an even split, so we'll try that.

(Chance 1/5) "Please input the combination: 55"

We fire that one down the pipe and we get this:

"You have a hunch that the combination is greater than 55."

We simply take that and apply it.

| 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |


 * 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |


 * 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 |


 * 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 |


 * 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 |


 * 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 |


 * 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 |


 * 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 |


 * 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 |

Forty-five down, fourty-four left. 77 is our new (almost) halfway mark, so let's see what happens when we cut it in half again.

(Chance 2/5) "Please input the combination: 77"

And our response:

"You have a hunch that the combination is greater than 77."

Let's plug it in, plug it in:

| 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |


 * 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |


 * 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 |


 * 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 |


 * 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 |


 * 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 |


 * 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 |


 * 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 |


 * 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 |

Looking better. Let's go 88.

(Chance 3/5) "Please input the combination: 88"

Cap'n Casket sez:

"You have a hunch that the combination is less than 88."

| 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |


 * 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |


 * 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 |


 * 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 |


 * 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 |


 * 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 |


 * 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 |


 * 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 |


 * 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 |

Closer still.

(Chance 4/5) "Please input the combination: 82"

Aaaaaand...

"You have a hunch that the combination is less than 82."

| 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |


 * 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |


 * 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 |


 * 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 |


 * 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 |


 * 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 |


 * 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 |


 * 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 |


 * 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 |

Uh-oh. I liked our odds better last time. See, the problem with the over-under is that even cutting our options by half each time, we're left with a bigger grouping of options at crunch time. 1 chance out of 4 that we hit it right. It'll get you close, and it does have the advantage of being a little faster as well as not involving a whole lot of math, but we sure don't want to miss out on scores of extra goodies, right? Of course not! I say we scrap this run. Let's not give the Cap'n the satisfaction of watching us sweat it out.

"/point /laugh"

Yeah yeah, you'll get yours, just wait.