Drop Rates Guide

Defining Drop Rates
Drop Rates are typically expressed as a percentage when viewing the wiki page of the monster that can drop the item. For example, visiting the wiki page for Leaping Lizzy you would find the drop rates for Bounding Boots expressed like so:



Here we see that Bounding Boots have a drop rate of 7.6%. It is important to note a few things about drop rates.
 * Drop rates are percentages based on fractions of success.
 * When a player experiences success or failure of a drop, it can be expressed as a fraction of successes over attempts, so one drop out of four attempts would be expressed as 1/4.
 * This fraction is automatically calculated by wiki into a percentage and displayed on the monster's page.
 * All drop rates are estimates based on player experience.
 * When a player wants to add his or her experience to the drop rate, they simply change the fraction. For example, if previous experiences have been tallied to 7/32 drops, and for you the item drops one time out of four attempts, you would add the fraction 1/4 to the estimate making it 8/36.
 * This means that few drop rates listed are completely accurate, but the more players that add their experiences, the closer to complete accuracy the listed drop rate becomes.
 * Every body experiences unique drop rates. When you read a 75% drop rate, it is still possible, though highly unlikely that you will go 1/10 on the drop. See the Lesson on Probability section below for more on this.

A Lesson on Probability
Probability is a difficult concept to grasp, let alone put down into words. Many mathematicians who master the concept of probability make fortunes in gambling, but because it is so difficult, these masters are few and far between.

The most important thing to remember when it comes to probability is that it is only saying what is probable, not what will be. For instance when you read a drop rate of 10% (or 1/10) it does not mean you will definitely get a drop by the 10th kill. Instead it just means that it is probable that within 10 kills your item will drop.

For an example of how probability works, lets take a look at the "/random" command. This command will display a random number from 1 to 999 with no bias towards one side or the other. If you use this command 10 times, chances are you will get some closer to 1 and some closer to 999 and even some closer to the middle, but if you average these results the resulting number will probably be closer to 500, right in the middle. Do this command 100 times and it will probably average closer to 500 than with just 10 /randoms. The theory with probability is that the more times something is done the more likely a probable outcome will be evident.

The casinos you see both in Jeuno and Aht Urhgan Whitegate and in Las Vegas are betting on this fact. They realize that some people will go extremely high and win their money back and then some, but at the end of the day, the average will be right in the middle. So as long as they keep their point of winning above that of the bettor, probability rules in favor of the casino as long as they perform the bet enough times to make an apparent average.

How all this applies to drop rates is that when you read a drop rate, keep in mind that you are reading the average percentage of success of whatever number of people have contributed their experience. If only 2 people have contributed their experiences the success rate may be extremely off, but if 20 people contribute their experience the success rate should be closer to the mark.

One last word on probability. Just because a drop rate is 10% and you've killed the monster 9 times without the drop, it does not mean you are due for a drop. This concept is easy to create, but in reality it is completely false. If you /random 50 times and the game displays a number less than 500 every time, the next /random still has only a 1/2 chance of being greater than 500, it does not increase simply because you've had a certain outcome every time leading up to that. The same concept applies to drop rates. If you have killed the monster 10 times, the tenth attempt is not any more likely to drop than those attempts leading up to it. If your chances of getting the drop are 10%, then it is 10% every time, whether on the first attempt or the twentieth.

Don't be discouraged by this fact, rather it should be an encouraging thought. This means that you are just as likely to get the drop on the first try as the tenth and you shouldn't go in expecting to have to kill a mob ten times to get the drop, but just be aware that that is the average person's experience. Just don't be drawn in by the false idea of a drop being due at any point.

Enhancing Drop Rates

 * Treasure Hunter
 * A job trait is obtainable by Thief at level 15 and enhanced at level 45.
 * This is the only way to enhance drop rates confirmed by Square Enix.
 * This trait can be improved with a Thief's Knife and with Assassin's Armlets or Assassin's Armlets +1.


 * Moon Phase
 * The moon seems to have a beneficial effect on drops when it is a full moon (90-100%).
 * The moon seems to have a degrading effect on drops when it is a new moon (0-10%).


 * Days of the Week
 * This is unproven speculation.
 * One theory suggests the drop rate and day correspondence depends on the monster's elemental alignment.
 * Common theory seems to suggest Watersday is the worst day for drops.


 * Four-Leaf Mandragora Bud
 * This item is described as being believed to bring good luck. This led to a long standing rumor that it could effect drop rates.
 * When the development team was questioned on this rumor, they replied by saying, "There is no hidden effects programed for these items. But there is no program for luck."
 * Many people have taken this to mean this item has no effect on drops.