Crafting Skill Ups

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Overview
Gaining skill in any craft may be influenced by a number factors. The only proven influences are the gap between current craftskill level and the recipe's skill cap, and guild synthesis support.

Hypothesized influences include such things as day of the week in relation to the crystal being used, moon phase, and (perhaps the most contriversial hypothesis) the direction the player is facing while synthing.

Failed synthesis can give skill-ups, but only if the unmodified skill level is at least 5 under the cap for the recipe. Using skill gear and support will increase your success rate until your skill is high enough to get skill-ups regardless of succes.

The Formula

 * Skill Cap - Your Skill - Sum("The Factors") = X


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The Skill Cap
The maximum skill level attained from this recipe.
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Your Skill
The number to use in this formula your current skill level truncated to the units digit (rounded down). There is no difference in performing a recipe with skill level 54.2 or 54.9. Only full levels are considered. Guild items that add '+' skill levels, should be considered as a solid skill number, and be added to the number listed in your status window.
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"The Factors"
Below is the list of factors that can directly influence the success rate of a recipe and the likelihood of receiving a skill up. Note: The number to apply based on moon phase can be adjusted to levels between 1 and 0 (negative or positive) based on the percentage difference between half and full moon. A 75% Waxing moon phase would result in a +0.5



"X"
Now for the "X". This is the result of the formula, and below is what you can expect from various numbers.

The Redundant Zone: < 1

 * Skill ups can be harder to attain.
 * The recipe is too easy to improve your skill.
 * Just too many factors helping you succeed, so no chance to learn.

The Success Zone: 1 - 2

 * Very good rate of success.
 * Skill ups will happen, but some will be lost due to the recipe being easy to your current skills.
 * Best used when the recipe is break even or profit, and/or when the ingredients are expensive.

The Prime Skill Up Zone: 2 - 5

 * Very good rate for skill ups.
 * Failures will happen, but at a fair trade off for skill ups (in most cases).
 * For anywhere from 7/8-1 levels from cap, it is fairly easy to get the "X" to be in this range>
 * You still gain skill on breaks

The Difficult Zone: 5 - 7
(Edit: this is not correct: You still DO gain skill-ups if your nominal skill (the one that shows in your window) is 5 or less below the cap of the recipe.)
 * You do not gain skill on breaks
 * Supplies better be cheap, or you will be digging yourself into a hole.

The High Risk, Low Reward Zone: > 7

 * Only for the case that each other recipe will give you en even higher loss
 * Please move onto another craft/recipe before wasting your gil here.

Examples
Lizard Cesti - Leathercraft 17 - Earth Crystal

Level 13: Craft on Earthsday (+1), Face South (+.5), New Moon (-1), No Guild Support (+0) = 0.5 x = 17 - 13 - 0.5 = 3.5

Level 14: Craft on Earthsday (+1), Face Southeast (-0.5), Half Moon (+0), No Guild Support (+0) = 0.5 x = 17 - 14 - 0.5 = 2.5

Level 15: Craft on Windsday (-1), Face Southeast (-0.5), Half Moon (+0), No Guild Support (+0) = -1.5 x = 17 - 15 + 1.5 = 3.5

Level 16: Craft on Windsday (-1), Face Southeast (-0.5), Half Moon (+0), No Guild Support (+0) = -1.5 x = 17 - 16 + 1.5 = 2.5

Conclusion
With so many factors affecting your crafting, it is no wonder people can scratch their heads when they do 30 synths and fail every single time with zero skill ups. The guide they are reading is telling them to do this certain recipe at the current level they are at. Are the authors of the guide crazy? No. Do they provide enough information so you know that to start the recipe with a 9 level gap, you need other criteria, that is not listed, before you can even imagine getting a single skill up? No.

This guide lets you decide on your own what is best to skill up on, at the exact moment in Vana'diel time you are currently in. The guides in turn will direct you to recipes that possibly offer a higher NPC return, or a better AH sale rate. With both sets of information, you should be set to attain great crafting achievements.

Good luck to all FFXI crafters, and keep up the good work.

For more information, you can consult the FFXI Crafting Timer